USDCHF Correlation: EURUSD vs USDCAD, Which Pair Mirrors the Swissie Better?

What moves USDCHF

USDCHF is the price of one US dollar in Swiss francs. Traders call the pair the Swissie. Two forces drive it. The first is the US dollar: when the dollar strengthens against everything, USDCHF and USDCAD rise while EURUSD, GBPUSD and NZDUSD fall. That shared dollar leg is what the correlation coefficient picks up, and it is why US inflation, jobs and FOMC meeting days tend to move all of these pairs together.

The second force is the franc itself. The Swiss National Bank sets the SNB policy rate and, as its monetary policy page explains, may also use other measures to influence the exchange rate. The franc is also widely bought as a safe haven in stressed markets. On a franc day, USDCHF moves while the dollar barely changes elsewhere, and the EURCHF cross shows it best.

A coefficient of -1 means two pairs always move in opposite directions, 0 means no linear link and +1 means they always move together. Over the last three months, USDCHF and EURUSD closed in opposite directions on 50 of 66 ECB fixing days (76%), while USDCHF and USDCAD closed in the same direction on 53 of 66 (80%).

USDCHF correlation table: every major pair

The inputs are ECB euro reference rates (see the ECB reference rates page) loaded through the Frankfurter exchange rate API, converted to dollar pairs and compared as daily percentage returns. All windows end on October 27, 2026.

How to read it in practice:

• Below about -0.7: a long in the other pair largely offsets your USDCHF long, and a short repeats it. That was EURUSD, GBPUSD and NZDUSD on six months and one year.
• Above about 0.6: a long in the other pair repeats your USDCHF long. That is USDCAD on every window from three months up. See the EURUSD vs USDCAD correlation page for how the two partners relate to each other (-0.56 over three months).
• A high EURCHF reading: when USDCHF tracks EURCHF closely, the franc is the story, not the dollar. Over one month that reading (0.71) was far stronger than EURUSD (-0.14).

EURUSD vs USDCAD: which pair mirrors USDCHF better?

Here are the two partners side by side, from the same ECB data. Pip values use the October 27, 2026 rates (USDCHF 0.8286, EURUSD 1.1150, USDCAD 1.4023) and the average daily move is the absolute fix to fix change over the last three months.

For the same window, USDCHF averaged 24.2 pips a day and rose 4.53%, from 0.7927 to 0.8286. So over a full year EURUSD was the better mirror: its moves were almost the exact opposite of USDCHF, both in daily correlation and in the size of the yearly move. USDCAD shares the dollar leg but also carries the Canadian dollar and oil, which is why its one year reading stayed near 0.60 (the USDCAD and oil correlation article covers that link, and the Bank of Canada key interest rate page shows its policy decisions).

Over the last three months the answer flipped by a small margin: USDCAD (0.63) was slightly closer than EURUSD (-0.60), and it agreed with USDCHF on more days. The verdict for traders: use EURUSD as the default mirror, but read the three month and one month tabs before you treat it as a hedge.

Why the EURUSD link weakened in October 2026

Rolling three month correlations, same ECB data, show how stable the EURUSD mirror was for most of the year and how fast it slipped:

The cause shows up in EURCHF. On the ECB fixes it climbed to 0.9461 on September 29, 2026, then fell to 0.9239 by October 27, a 2.3% gain for the franc against the euro. In the same weeks EURUSD dropped from 1.1355 to 1.1150, yet USDCHF slipped from 0.8332 to 0.8286 instead of rising. When the franc strengthens against both the euro and the dollar, USDCHF and EURUSD can fall together, and the mirror breaks.

That is the general rule for this pair: the EURUSD link is strongest when the US dollar is the story and weakest when the franc has its own, such as an SNB decision or a rush into safe havens. A one month reading of -0.14 says the last few weeks were franc weeks.

How much risk you stack with USDCHF and a second pair

Say you hold USDCHF and one other pair, each sized to risk 1% of your account. If both stops are hit you lose 2%, whatever the correlation. What correlation changes is how often the two win and lose together. For two equal positions, the combined swing grows with the square root of 2 + 2 × correlation, in units of one position's risk:

A USDCHF long next to a EURUSD short or a USDCAD long behaves close to one 2% dollar bet. Buying USDCHF and EURUSD together does the opposite: the two partly cancel, so you pay two spreads for a smaller net position, and on franc days both can lose at once. The rule of thumb: one view, one risk budget. The guide to using currency correlation in forex explains the same math with more pairs.

Sizing USDCHF, EURUSD and USDCAD from one budget

The three pairs pay different amounts per pip. EURUSD has the dollar as the quote currency, so 1.0 lot is always $10 a pip. USDCHF and USDCAD pay 10 francs or 10 Canadian dollars a pip, which converts to about $12.07 and $7.13 at the October 27 rates. The formula is lots = risk money ÷ (stop in pips × pip value). Here are lots at 1% risk with a 20 pip stop, close to each pair's median daily move:

The same stop needs 0.41 lot on USDCHF but 0.70 lot on USDCAD. Copying one lot size across both pairs would put about 70% more money at risk on the USDCHF leg. Now the two pair case: a $10,000 account with one 1% budget of $100, a USDCHF long with a 25 pip stop and a USDCAD long with a 30 pip stop:

Lots are rounded down to the 0.01 step, so the dollar risk never goes above plan. Run your own numbers in the USDCHF lot size calculator, the USDCAD lot size calculator or the position size calculator. Our USDCHF lot size guide shows why the franc pip value moves with the rate.

Using correlation to read a USDCHF breakout

When USDCHF closes above a clear resistance line, look at EURUSD, USDCAD and EURCHF on the same timeframe before you buy:

• EURUSD breaking down and USDCAD breaking out: it is a dollar move. You have one idea on three charts, so pick the cleanest one or split one risk budget.
• EURCHF rising hard with EURUSD flat: it is a franc move, the franc is weakening on its own. It can be a good trade, but EURUSD will not confirm or hedge it.
• Only USDCHF moving: check the SNB calendar and the news. Single pair moves around a central bank decision can reverse fast.

None of this makes a breakout more likely to work. It tells you what you are actually betting on. Check the payoff with the risk reward calculator before you size, and compare with a commodity currency pair in our NZDUSD correlation article.

A five step USDCHF correlation check

1. Open the forex correlation matrix and read USDCHF on the 1M and 3M tabs, not only 1Y.
2. List every open trade with a reading above 0.6 or below -0.6 against USDCHF.
3. Check EURCHF: if it drives USDCHF, the trade is about the franc, not the dollar.
4. If it is a dollar idea, give all the related trades one risk budget and split it.
5. Size each leg from its own stop and its own pip value: about $12.07 on USDCHF, $10 on EURUSD and about $7.13 on USDCAD per 1.0 lot at the October 27 rates.